نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری و عضو هیأت علمی دانشگاه افسری و تربیت پاسداری امام حسین(ع)
2 استادیار دانشگاه پیام نور – مرکز اصفهان
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
One of the issues that a climatologist can pay attention to is issues related to humans and human problems. In order to succeed in solving human problems, climatology have to find a practical format and give an interdisciplinary format to research. Thus, knowing the climate is necessary in the study of various human activities in various fields, including military affairs; it is for the reason that, among the sciences, especially the sciences related to the earth, there is less knowledge that does not require climatology. Meanwhile, one of the cases that can be studied and analyzed is the use of climate change in military and defense affairs of the country. In this research, the effect of temporal changes of precipitation in the form of a trend model on defense strategies was considered from the three perspectives of measuring, analyzing and predicting the series. In this regard, 93 climatological and synoptic stations of Iran with a statistical period of more than thirty years, were investigated and analyzed. After completing the data, the measurement and validation of the rainfall series of the stations were done. All the stations had parameter conditions that were used with factorial test (t-r) to measure and validate the data trend. According to the application of the rain series test, 13 stations have trends that were processed and predicted using the linear trend model (least squares). Then, the areas of temporal changes of precipitation (trend) with respect to defense strategies and threat axes, which include the forecast area of annual precipitation, stations with and without trends, and the range of changes in trended precipitation, were drawn, examined and studied. According to the obtained results, the greatest threat in terms of precipitation, due to having the least changes, is related to the Bandar Abbas-Tehran axis, and the least threat in terms of precipitation, due to the most changes, is related to the Bushehr-Tehran axis.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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